Persistent EUR / USD weakness, EUR / GBP aided by UK political mess, EUR / CAD eyes BoC



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EUR / USD, EUR / GBP, EUR / CAD prices, charts and analysis

  • EUR / USD – Short term weakness persists.
  • EUR / GBP – British pound rocked by politics.
  • EUR / CAD – The Bank of Canada at your fingertips.

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EUR / USD

Short-term EUR / USD weakness continues, with the pair looking poised to print a seventh straight daily chart high – excluding the Sunday candle – a negative configuration. Today’s price action has failed to post a new low as of this writing, which could temper any further decline, but the pair must break above the short-term simple moving average if the we want to stem further losses. The 20 day sma (red line) is currently under pressure and a breakout and close above this moving average could see the pair aiming for 1.1386 as a target. If weakness persists then there is little support ahead of 1.1200 and the Nov 24th 18 month low at 1.1185 kicks in.

EUR / USD Daily Price Chart December 8, 2021

Retail merchant data spectacle63.33% of traders are net long with a long / short ratio of 1.73 to 1. The number of net-long traders is 4.24% lower than yesterday and 2.33% higher than last week, while the number of net-short traders is 3.23% higher than last week. that of yesterday and 11.91% higher than that of last week. We generally take a contrarian view of crowd sentiment, and the fact that traders are net long suggests that EUR / USD prices may continue to decline.

However, traders are shorter than yesterday and compared to last week. Recent shifts in sentiment warn against The EUR / USD price trend may soon reverse upward despite traders staying net long.

EUR / GBP

The UK government is under increasing pressure to reveal whether it hosted a Christmas party last year, breaking a government-imposed lockdown order that banned households from mingling indoors. The subsequent publication of a video showing senior government officials joking about this ‘fictitious party’ has stepped up pressure on UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson to be clear about what really happened and the jovial response from some of its main collaborators. This situation is about to unfold and it will increase the pressure on the Prime Minister to act. Additionally, there are rumors that the government may reintroduce work-from-home measures and covid passports for large venues in the very near future, adding pressure on the pound sterling.

The EUR / GBP daily chart shows that the Euro has outperformed the British Pound over the past two weeks after breaking lows just below 0.8400 held from mid-November to the end. A longer term view of the pair shows that a series of higher highs and lower lows remain in place with a print above 0.8591 needed to break this trend. The 200-day sma, currently at 0.8553, is caps further on the upside for now.

EUR / GBP Daily Price Graph December 8, 2021

Persistent EUR / USD weakness, EUR / GBP aided by UK political mess, EUR / CAD eyes BoC

EUR / CAD

EUR / CAD traders will wait for the release at 3:00 p.m. GMT of the Bank of Canada’s latest monetary policy decision to see if the central bank changes the timing of the first of its four rate hikes expected next year. The economic backdrop remains strong – see article below – but the growing spread of covid-19 could cause the BoC to take a slightly less aggressive stance, leaving the Canadian dollar at risk in the near term.

Bank of Canada snapshot: How will the Canadian dollar (CAD) react?

The weekly EUR / CAD chart shows the pair is around 100 pips from a new three and a half year low. The longer term outlook remains negative with a “death cross” formation (from MMJ 50 to MM 200) in mid-September, triggering a sell off.

EUR / CAD Weekly Price Table December 8, 2021

Persistent EUR / USD weakness, EUR / GBP aided by UK political mess, EUR / CAD eyes BoC

What is your take on the EURO – bullish or bearish ?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this article or you can contact the author via Twitter @ nickcawley1.

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